Europe is sitting on the thinnest jet fuel cushion among the world’s major aviation markets, with less than 30 days of reserves on hand just as tensions between Iran and Israel threaten to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz once more. In early June, European stockpiles stood at roughly 38 million barrels, compared with 99 million barrels held by the United States, according to figures from analytics firm Energy Aspects cited by Reuters.
Why Europe is more exposed than the US and Asia
Decades of refinery closures have left the continent far more dependent on Middle Eastern supplies routed through Hormuz, the narrow maritime passage that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil. The United Kingdom, France and Germany are considered the most exposed among major European markets.
Energy Aspects estimates, updated as of June 18, point to a European shortfall of nearly 600,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, compared with a surplus of 116,000 barrels per day in the United States and 425,000 in the Asia Pacific region.
The strait was partially closed following US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February, before reopening in June. That truce remains fragile, with fresh exchanges of strikes reported again in July.
How Europe is responding to the shortage
The continent has moved quickly to diversify its suppliers, turning to Canada, Nigeria, India and South Korea to offset reduced Middle Eastern availability. In June, European jet fuel imports reached 673,000 barrels per day, the highest level since October 2025, with the United States and Nigeria emerging as the top suppliers.
A first shipment from Kuwait, around 25,000 barrels per day, is expected in August. It would mark the first Kuwaiti delivery since early March, before the conflict disrupted normal flows. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen has said Brussels stands ready to coordinate the release of national reserves should the situation worsen toward the end of summer.
Italy’s refineries are picking up the slack
According to data from fuel producers association UNEM, Italian refineries increased jet fuel production by 10 percent in the first four months of the year, cutting imports by 6 percent and covering nearly 70 percent of national demand between March and April through domestic output alone.
Eni, which alone accounts for roughly half of Italy’s jet fuel production capacity, has boosted output by importing semi refined products from outside Europe.
Will falling fuel prices bring cheaper flights?
Jet fuel prices in Northern Europe have fallen to around 133 dollars per barrel, down from a record peak of 215 dollars hit at the end of March, easing some of the pressure on airline budgets, where fuel typically makes up between 20 and 25 percent of operating costs.
Analysts are not expecting immediate relief on ticket prices, however. Demand remains strong and capacity limited, partly because several airlines have already cut flights to ration available fuel. Paradoxically, the Hormuz related crisis has so far helped push average European airfares lower, as it has dampened demand for international travel.
The fallout from Middle East tensions on European air travel goes beyond fuel costs alone. The partial closure of Iranian airspace since February 2026 has already added up to four hours to flights between Europe and Asia, with an estimated cost to the industry of 8.4 billion dollars for the summer of 2026 alone.
